“Armenian troops will also leave following civilians, having lost hope to win in new military conflicts”
“There will not be any solution for the Karabakh conflict in 2017. Yerevan believes that Trump will cede the post-Soviet space to Russia, and President Putin will solve the Karabakh issue at his discretion. Then Armenia as “Russia’s outpost in South Caucasus”, will derive more benefit. The Kremlin also hopes that Trump recognizes the post-Soviet space as an area of exclusively national interests of Russia. “Russian political scientist Mehman Gafarli informed Vesti.Az about this.
– However, it is naïve to rely only on international law and refer to the UN Security Council resolutions that recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and demand the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. The existing world order is crumbling before eyes: the main political institution of the world – the United Nations is in crisis and has lost its former influence. And the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has become a hopeless amorphous structure and does not have a serious influence on the conflicting parties.
In such circumstances, there is only one reasonable way out for Azerbaijan – to force the Armenian troops out of Azerbaijani territories by means of victories in small wars. Moreover, the Armenian troops should first be forced out of Nagorno-Karabakh. They will fight hard only for Nagorno Karabakh, Lachin and Kalbajar districts, the Armenian troops will withdraw from the remaining five districts without much fight.
Azerbaijan needs victories in short wars which last not more than 7-8 days, as Russia will not allow to conduct prolonged hostilities against Armenia. The “Little War” has to be held in the form of targeted operations. And after a quick devastating blow to the enemy and dealing with specific military tasks, as well as after the intervention of Moscow, it is possible to stop military actions and resume negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. But at the same time, leaving the liberated territories under the control, as it was after the April war.
This brief war will not cause big resonance in the world. It is advantageous from a financial point of view, will not undermine the economy of Azerbaijan and will not lead to a stampede by investors and the capital out of the country.
After 5-6 successful operations of the Azerbaijani army in these small-scale military campaigns, the civilians will not stay in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian troops will also leave following civilians, having lost hope to win in new military conflicts with Azerbaijan. Then, Armenia itself will want to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, involuntarily recognizing its territorial integrity, to establish lasting peace in the region.
Author: Mehman Gafarly