The US political establishment is busy with the presidential election. And nobody knows exactly who will be the next US president. However, the expert community has already begun to make predictions about the possibility of changes in US policy in different parts of the world. One of the major strategic directions for the US is the South Caucasus region. With a request to share his predictions with us, we turned to Senior Eurasia Analyst in Stratfor Eugene Chausovsky.

Will the US policy in the South Caucasus change after the change of leadership? Or will all remain as it is?

Normally at Stratfor, we view the foreign policy of any country – including the United States – as shaped more by national strategic imperatives and geopolitical circumstances rather than being dictated by any one individual leader. Of course, there can be certain differences over specific areas from one administration to another, and certainly Donald Trump has advocated for bigger changes to US foreign policy than Hillary Clinton. However, either candidate would still be constrained in their decision-making both by internal and external political forces to make any large changes in US foreign policy, whether in the Caucasus or elsewhere. Therefore, while there could be some tactical policy changes with the new presidential administration, US strategy in the Caucasus is not likely to shift in a major way.